Residents of the British Virgin Islands have been warned of more inclement weather approaching.
According to an advisory from the Department of Disaster Management, there is a tropical wave will move across the islands this afternoon into tonight, resulting in unstable weather which could lead to showers and thunderstorms developing. The advisory noted that in the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services latest forecast said as the wave moves closer, there is the potential for heavier showers with thunderstorms that may produce lightning. Sea conditions are expected to be moderate to rough with wave heights of up to 1.8 to 2.4 meters or 6 to 8 feet, occasionally reaching 3 meters or 10 feet. Therefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect. Winds are easterly at 10 to 17 knots with strong gusts of up to 30 knots possible, mainly during showers.
Disturbance 1 is located near latitude 14 degrees north, longitude 46 degrees west, or about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is moving westward at about 20 miles per hour (mph). The low-level circulation has become better defined in the last 24 hours. It is producing some disorganized squalls. The environment is not favorable for intensification due to dry Saharan air. The disturbance will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Model guidance suggests that this system will find a more favorable environment for development once it reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea late this weekend and early next week. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 40 percent.
Disturbance 2 is located near latitude 14 degrees north, longitude 34 degrees west, or about 600 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving westward at about 20 mph. This system has also become better defined in the last 24 hours. It is generating some showers and thunderstorms, especially west of the center. This system is also being affected by dry Saharan air. Over the next few days, it will move to the west-northwest, passing north of the islands. The latest model guidance indicates less development than in previous days. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 30 percent.
Disturbance 3 is located on the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave is producing some disorganized showers as it moves westward. The environment is expected to remain dry, and not favorable for intensification for the next 3-4 days. However, model guidance suggests that in about 5 days it will move above latitude 20 degrees north over the central Atlantic. Conditions north of latitude 20 degrees north should be more favorable for development. At this time, it seems that it will not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The chance of development in the next 7 days is 40 percent.
According to the DDM will continue to monitor these weather systems and provide updates when they become available. Please continue to monitor local media stations, DDM’s website (bviddm.com) and Facebook at BVIDDM for regular updates.